International Analysis
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TIS Analysis
Highlights
- Hakimullah Mehsud’s death remains in doubt
- TTP leader became major target following December 2009 bombing of CIA facility in Khost, Afghanistan
- Waliur Rehman likely successor if Mehsud confirmed dead
Reports have surfaced that Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) leader Hakimullah Mehsud died due to injuries suffered in a January 14, 2010 unmanned aerial drone strike in a village between North and South Waziristan. The “word of mouth” confirmation came from tribal elders and other witnesses who claimed to have recently attended Mehsud’s funeral in Orakzai Agency, located in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA).
The immediate aftermath of the January 14th strike, Pakistani Taliban militants insisted Mehsud left the compound minutes before the strike occurred. On January 16, 2010 Hakimullah released audio messages denying he was anywhere near the attack, but ultimately failed to quell rumors that the TTP leader had been seriously injured in the attack. The United States (US) and Pakistani governments have yet to officially confirm Hakimullah’s death, but unnamed officials within both governments have stated there is a “90 percent” chance the militant leader is dead.
If Hakimullah’s death is confirmed, it would represent a major blow to the TTP, a group that has recently lost its sanctuary in South Waziristan, growing increasingly isolated among regional tribal elders, losing support among the Pakistani public, and possibly now the loss of a charismatic leader. However, claims of Mehsud’s death must be greeted with skepticism, as the TTP leader has been declared dead at least once before, only to resurface later. The best indication of Hakimullah’s status will come from the personal release of an audio or videotape confirming he is alive. In the past, Mehsud has been quick to dispel rumors of his death, and the latest silence may be the best proof of his death.
Major Blow
Although the Pakistani Taliban has shown resilience in the past – particularly following the death of Baitullah Mehsud in August 2009 – we believe it would be difficult to recover following the loss of Hakimullah Mehsud.
The success achieved by the Pakistani military invasion of South Waziristan in October 2009 targeting TTP militants and destroying several of the group’s training camps has dealt major blows. Also, there is evidence that the TTP’s top leaders are becoming increasingly isolated from elders of the powerful Mehsud tribe, as many are currently negotiating with the government to hand over surviving militant leaders.
However, there is reason to be pessimistic in suggesting the TTP will be unable to recover from the potential death of Hakimullah Mehsud. Pakistani officials believed that the death of Baitullah Mehsud would lead to the disintegration and collapse of the TTP. The opposite occurred with the rise of Hakimullah, who quickly unified the organization and launched an unprecedented wave of bombings throughout Pakistan. We believe the survival and continued capability of the TTP largely resides with who will succeed Hakimullah. There are several leaders prepared and willing to succeed Mehsud, and continue furthering his goals of waging a campaign of violence against the Pakistani government.
The Likely Successors
We believe the two most likely successors to Hakimullah Mehsud would be Qari Hussain and Waliur Rehman. We note Waliur Rehman is currently second in command of the TTP and head of military operations in South Waziristan, while Qari Hussain is the chief trainer and planner of suicide operations. Out of the two, Qari Hussain is more similar to Mehsud, but considered more violent and aggressive.
Hakimullah’s aggressive operations, including the targeting of civilians and well-respected tribal leaders in the northwest, have generated unpopularity throughout Pakistan. The TTP leader’s tactics resulted in the Pakistani military’s invasion of South Waziristan, as well as the creation of a unified opposition against the TTP. If Qari Hussain is chosen, the TTP would likely replicate the tactics of targeting civilians and creating a state of fear throughout FATA, further deteriorating popular opinion. However, Waliur Rehman is more careful, thoughtful, and arguably reasonable, resulting in a more reserved TTP in the near-term.
Given the major problems and challenges currently facing the TTP, we believe Waliur Rehman will likely be chosen successor if Hakimullah is confirmed dead. This is likely to result in a tactical and operational shift, potentially worsening ties with al-Qaeda, but improving ties with the Afghan Taliban.
Post Hakimullah
While not officially confirmed by the US or Pakistani governments, we believe there is a moderate likelihood that Hakimullah Mehsud recently died from burns and other injuries suffered from the January 14th drone strike. Hakimullah’s silence over the last several days, as well as the Pakistani Taliban’s recent statement suggesting there is no need to release a proof of life, further adds to speculation that the TTP leader is dead. However, the TTP is also going to be reluctant to issue proofs of life every time a leader is assumed dead, as it enhances their chances of being successfully tracked.
Looking to August 2009 when Mehsud’s predecessor was killed by a US drone strike in South Waziristan, the Pakistani Taliban denied his death for almost three weeks, only announcing it after Hakimullah Mehsud was declared the new leader. By denying Hakimullah’s death, we believe the Pakistani Taliban may be attempting to avoid a leadership crisis and a further drop in morale. If audio or video confirmation is not released in the coming days or weeks, Hakimullah’s death will likely be announced as soon as a successor is chosen, likely Waliur Rehman.
Primary Related Group
Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)
Secondary Related Group
NONE
Tertiary Related Group
NONE
