-       Offensive in Kandahar likely to begin in summer

-       Marjah operation likely to be used as model for future operations in Afghanistan

-       Outcome of Kandahar conflict likely to determine future of Afghanistan

On February 21, 2010 commander of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) and United States (US) forces in Afghanistan General Stanley McChrystal stated that the southern province of Kandahar was likely the next target of a major military offensive. The statement came as the US-led military offensive was in its second week in the Helmand province town of Marjah, the largest offensive since the Afghan Taliban regime fell in 2001. 

 

We note that both Helmand and Kandahar provinces have been major hotspots of the insurgency and strongholds of the Afghan Taliban following the US-led invasion that overthrew the militant organization in 2001. Over the last nine years, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and Afghan government forces have achieved little success in eradicating the Afghan Taliban presence in both of these provinces. However, the early successes achieved in the Marjah offensive offers new hope in southern Afghanistan, and is likely to be a model for targeting other Afghan Taliban strongholds in southern and eastern Afghanistan for the next 12-18 months.

 

As the military aspect of the Marjah offensive is largely finished, the US is likely to look toward Kandahar province, where Kandahar city was once the Afghan Taliban capital. An offensive targeting the Afghan Taliban in Kandahar province is currently in its planning stages, and unlikely to begin until this summer. We believe the Afghan Taliban’s top priority is maintaining control of Kandahar province, specifically Kandahar city. Any attempt by the Afghan government and NATO to take control of the province will likely meet strong resistance from the Afghan Taliban. Using the Marjah offensive as a model, we expect a major offensive in Kandahar in coming months, which will likely represent one of the most decisive campaigns of the entire Afghan conflict and largely dictate the future of the country. 

 

Kandahar is often labeled Afghanistan’s political powerhouse. It was the seat of the former Afghan royal family, base for Afghan Taliban founder Mullah Mohammad Omar during his reign from the mid-1990’s to 2001, and is the ancestral homeland of current President Hamid Karzai’s family. As Tooryalai Wesa, governor of Kandahar province, recently stated:

 

As the province was the center of the Afghan Taliban’s rule years ago, the province continues to host major militant activity, particularly in the districts of Zhari and Panjwai, where the group has shadow courts and other parallel extremist institutions. The Afghan Taliban has made Kandahar its primary objective of their campaign in southern Afghanistan, waging an insurgent campaign with a clear and constant objective: to exert control over Kandahar city. To accomplish this objective, the Afghan Taliban sought to take control of the populated areas surrounding Kandahar city district by district.

 

We note until recent months, a combat force of nearly 1,000 Canadian troops was left to defend the province, which allowed the Afghan Taliban to control large parts of the region and embark on a step-by-step plan to re-capture Kandahar city. To the Afghan Taliban, controlling Kandahar could be more important than Kabul. As a result, any attempts to increase NATO forces in the province, particularly Kandahar city, is likely to be met with intense resistance from the Afghan Taliban. 

 

We note Marjah represents a major strategic and tactical loss for the Afghan Taliban, but losing control of Kandahar may inevitably turn the tide of the war in favor of the Afghan government. 

 

We note neither Kandahar nor Kandahar city are currently under Afghan Taliban control, but militants do maintain a major presence in districts surrounding the capital city. We are particularly concerned with the districts of Zhari and Panjwai, where the Afghan Taliban is largely in control and successfully launches attacks against targets inside of Kandahar city. We note Canadian forces in 2007 and 2008 have fought Afghan Taliban militants in both districts, but resulted in a costly stalemate as the Canadian military lacked the forces required to clear the Afghan Taliban from the area decisively. 

 

In the coming months, we expect a gradual increase in NATO and Afghan forces in Kandahar province, specifically focusing on the outlying areas of Kandahar city and attempting to disrupt the Afghan Taliban’s ability to control access into the city center. Unlike Marjah, where the militants are mainly concentrated in one area, the Afghan Taliban is more dispersed in Kandahar and more integrated into the community. As a result, an offensive will have to be targeted over a much bigger area, likely requiring at least 15,000-20,000 coalition troops. While the Marjah operation offers a model for future military offensives in Afghanistan, the situation in Kandahar is much more complicated and must be looked at from a unique perspective. 

 

 

We believe the Marjah operation is a tactical prelude to larger, more comprehensive operations. A major operation in the province is likely to commence in the summer months, once Marjah is stabilized and the coalition has had enough time to plan the offensive. We believe fighting in Kandahar will be intense and result in a significant number of casualties on both sides. We also believe the operation will be more complicated and the mission more difficult to achieve, not only due to its symbolic importance to the Afghan Taliban, but also because Kandahar is more populated than Helmand province and insurgents are not concentrated in a few key locales. 

 

An operation in Kandahar, which will likely include American, Afghan, British, and Canadian forces, will likely move at a slow pace and focus primarily on the outskirts of Kandahar city. The tactics and strategies used in Marjah, such as emphasis on avoiding civilian casualties at all costs, will likely be replicated in any future military operations in Kandahar, as gaining the trust and confidence of the Afghan people continues to be number one priority. 

 

We note it is the US and Afghan government’s goal to reverse the momentum of the Afghan Taliban. To successfully do so, we believe Kandahar, particularly the capital city, must be under government control by the end of 2010. We believe for both sides, Kandahar is a far bigger prize than Marjah and the outcome of the inevitable coalition offensive will likely determine the future of Afghanistan.